Lab · shadow run
$FERN Shadow Maker
MM0 observes the market and records every decision it would have made. Nothing is executed and no capital is at risk.
Shadow period
DAY 14 / 30
Simulated capital
$500.0K
Hypothetical ±1% depth
+$15.8K
average contribution
LP fees
+$35,374
Inventory effect
−$6,928
Net vs holding
+$28,445
Rebalances
17
Max MM drawdown
−2.43%
absolute −8.73%
Hypothetical NAV vs benchmarks
MM0 shadowHODLPassive LPStatic CL
Where the shadow maker would hold liquidity
What MM0 would have done
| Time (sim) | Decision | Range | Capital | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D16 19:32:00 | Rebalance liquidity | 0.007120–0.01176 | $285,480 | regime width change |
| D15 19:01:00 | Rebalance liquidity | 0.008216–0.01108 | $296,940 | inventory skew |
| D14 00:11:00 | Rebalance liquidity | 0.007878–0.01069 | $284,518 | regime width change |
| D12 19:30:00 | Top up liquidity | 0.007068–0.01224 | $257,791 | deployment ramp |
| D12 19:15:00 | Top up liquidity | 0.007068–0.01224 | $206,456 | deployment ramp |
| D12 19:00:00 | Rebalance liquidity | 0.007063–0.01224 | $156,113 | regime width change |
| D12 16:35:00 | Rebalance liquidity | 0.005658–0.01528 | $156,061 | regime width change |
| D12 16:34:00 | Reduce liquidity | — | $126,496 | defensive reduction |
| D11 14:53:00 | Rebalance liquidity | 0.008320–0.01118 | $292,229 | inventory skew |
| D11 00:57:00 | Rebalance liquidity | 0.008510–0.01141 | $295,451 | inventory skew |
| D10 13:12:00 | Top up liquidity | 0.008544–0.01153 | $267,074 | deployment ramp |
| D10 12:57:00 | Rebalance liquidity | 0.008547–0.01154 | $213,890 | inventory skew |
Benchmark comparison
MM0 shadow+$17,256 · DD −8.7%
HODL−$11,196 · DD −10.9%
Passive full-range LP−$6,650 · DD −10.3%
Static CL+$53,804 · DD −8.7%
Periodic rebalance+$52,367 · DD −7.7%
Shadow results are hypothetical: real execution adds latency, fees and market impact. A shadow period is a paper-trading record, not a forecast.